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The United States has moved the largest concentration of air power to the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion, stealth fighters, command-and-control planes, additional air defenses, and a second aircraft carrier group, creating the operational option not just for a symbolic strike, but for a sustained air campaign that could stretch for weeks. The message is deliberately ambiguous: the machinery is in place, the decision is not.
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Continuing Conflicts
Reports have emerged (most recently through theafricareport and the Saldhig Institute), that ties between Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and the Houthis in Yemen have deepened, and that the two groups have conducted training and intelligence exchanges, weapons transfers, and have growing financial links. While Yemen has been a “marketplace” for elicit weapons, the deepening trust between the two groups could lead to the Houthis (or potentially even state actors in Iran) tranferring more advanced weaponry to Al-Shabaab. Observers were most concerned about the potential transfer of military-grade grones or missile systems, which could worsen the ongoing and longstanding conflict in Somalia. Al-Shabaab operatives have reportedly already travelled to Yemen for training in explosives and drone operations, and hawala networks accross Yemen, Djibouti, and Oman have been identified. This relationship is groundbreaking as it transcends the deeply dived sectarian nature of Islamist terrorist groups. It is exceedingly uncommon for Shia and Sunni terrorist groups to cooperate at such a high level. It appears that the relationship is also complicated, especially given that Al-Shabaab maintains longstanding ties to Al-Qaeda (Arabian Peninsula branch), which has continued to opperate in Yemen, and previously fought against the Houthis. However, these burgeoning ties add yet another complexity to the political and security environment in both the Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions, and demonstrate the regional shift towards pragmatic and value-drived cooperation over more rigid historical ideological commitments. As the dispute between the UAE and Saudi Arabia continues to play out, the Red Sea Region remains a battleground for both countries and their strateigic interests. Since the fallout in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has pursued much closer security agreements with both Somalia and Egypt, while officials in Somaliland have claimed that the UAE helped them become recognised by Israel.
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Europe
With circumstances and claims eerily similar to the 2024 Serbian Corruption Protests, which were sparked by the collapse of Novi Sad’s railway station’s canopy, for the past six days, protestors have gathered in Sarajevo to demand greater accountability following the a tram accient that killed a student and has left four others in critical conditions. Since the beginning of the protest, the Prime Minister of Sarajevo Canton, Nihad Uk, and the director of the cit’s public transportation company (GRAS), Senad Mujagić have resigned. However, protestors continue to call for more resignations, including that of the Sarajevo Canton’s minister of Education Naida Hota Muminović after letters were reportedly sent to schools to discourage students from attending the protests. The student organizers of the protest have stated that the movement is not political, rebuking online claims that they were sent by the current oppposition party, the Party of Democratic Action (SDA).
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Asia
Russia’s offer to build a small modular nuclear reactor in Kyrgyzstan is being marketed as an answer to a practical problem, lights that flicker, winters that strain the grid, a hydropower system stretched beyond its design life. But the proposal is also a statement about how Moscow intends to do influence after 2026: not only through trade and security ties, but through infrastructure that cannot be easily unwound. A nuclear plant is not a shipment of fuel; it is an institutional relationship. If Kyrgyzstan accepts, it will not simply be buying electricity. It will be buying into a decades-long architecture of technology, finance, regulation, and dependence, one that inevitably carries geopolitical weight. Kyrgyzstan’s vulnerability is real and increasingly structural. More than 90 percent of its electricity generation comes from hydropower, heavily concentrated in the Toktogul cascade. That dependence exposes the country to drought cycles, water politics, and the slow corrosion of Soviet-era equipment. Demand has risen steadily, while generation and grid resilience have not kept pace. The government’s declaration of a state of emergency in the energy sector in 2023 was an explicit admission that the system can no longer guarantee uninterrupted supply with existing tools. Persistent shortages are not just an economic inconvenience in a country where households and small businesses already operate near the edge; they can become a social accelerant, translating seasonal stress into political volatility. This is the opening Russia is trying to widen. The groundwork was laid early in 2022 through a memorandum between Rosatom and Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy on cooperation in “peaceful” nuclear development, non-binding in form, but structurally suggestive in intent. The point was not only to float a reactor concept, but to begin shaping the regulatory and administrative scaffolding that a nuclear sector requires. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the tightening web of Western sanctions, the logic hardened: export high-technology systems to politically friendly states, and embed Russian relevance in projects with multi-decade life cycles. In that model, Kyrgyzstan is not a marginal client. It is a proving ground. Technically, the appeal is straightforward. A nuclear reactor supplies baseload power that does not rise and fall with snowfall, reservoirs, or seasonal irrigation disputes. Russian officials have indicated Kyrgyzstan could be offered a plant based on the RITM-200N design, with configurations ranging roughly from 110 to 440 megawatts. Even the lower end could ease winter deficits, reduce imports, and relieve pressure on hydropower assets during dry years. It would also change the strategic geometry of Kyrgyz energy planning: instead of living at the mercy of water flows, the state could plan around a stable generation core. But that stability comes with conditions that, in Kyrgyzstan’s case, are not mere technicalities, they are political choices. A nuclear sector demands an independent safety regulator, trained operators, emergency response capacity, long-term fuel supply arrangements, and a credible plan for waste management. Kyrgyzstan can build these institutions slowly and expensively, or it can outsource much of the competence to the vendor state. Either way, the project becomes more than a power plant. It becomes a channel through which Russia can remain indispensable: not only as builder, but as maintainer, fuel supplier, software provider, spare-parts warehouse, and periodic upgrader. The dependence is not incidental; it is engineered into the life cycle. The financial dimension deepens the lock-in. Small modular reactors are often pitched as flexible and cheaper than traditional plants, but they remain capital-intensive projects with long payback periods. In practice, this tends to produce debt exposure, complex contractual commitments, and limited room to renegotiate once construction begins. In a country with constrained fiscal space, the risk is not simply cost overruns; it is the strategic narrowing that comes when critical energy infrastructure is tied to a single external partner. Kyrgyzstan would be staking a portion of its future electricity security on a state that has repeatedly demonstrated an ability, and willingness, to use energy relationships for political leverage. The project’s danger lies not only in what Russia could do, but in what Kyrgyzstan would find it difficult to do once the plant exists.
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Africa
Somalia’s government is once again declaring momentum in its long war against al-Shabab, pointing to U.S.-backed airstrikes and expanded ground operations that it says have helped reclaim territory and disrupt the group’s leadership and bomb-making networks. The timing is not incidental. This renewed offensive is unfolding as African Union peacekeepers continue their gradual drawdown, shifting a greater share of security responsibility onto Somali forces at the very moment the state is being asked, by partners and by its own citizens, to prove it can hold what it takes. Al-Shabab’s resilience has always been less about headline battles than about adaptation. After being pushed out of Mogadishu in 2011, the group recalibrated into a system of guerrilla warfare, assassinations, and bombings, financed through taxation and extortion that, by UN accounts, generates immense yearly revenue. The insurgency’s staying power has come from its ability to function like a shadow state in rural corridors and contested towns: coercing, collecting, and punishing with an efficiency that governments struggling with payrolls and patronage networks often cannot match. What appears to be changing, at least according to Somali officials and analysts cited, is the density of surveillance and the speed of lethality. Expanded drone coverage and strike capacity have reportedly made it easier to identify hideouts, supply routes, and staging areas that were previously difficult to reach, turning once-protected depth into exposed terrain. Officials argue that air operations have not just killed fighters but also degraded the infrastructure of violence: IED workshops, explosive-laden vehicles, and the connective tissue of logistics. Even around Mogadishu, drones are described as providing earlier warning of militant movement, an incremental shift that matters in a war where a single car bomb can erase months of “improved security” messaging. Yet the decisive test is not whether airpower can help seize ground, but whether the state can metabolize victory into governance. Somalia has lived through this cycle before: offensives that win territory, followed by withdrawals, administrative absence, and the slow return of militants into the gaps left behind. The most vulnerable moment in counterinsurgency is often after the flag goes up—when civilians ask for roads, salaries, courts, and food security, and the state answers with checkpoints and press releases. If al-Shabab’s appeal has been built partly on fear and coercion, it has also been sustained by the vacuum of services and the predictability of corruption. /
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Middle East
Iran’s economic story is increasingly written in departures: of dollars, of confidence, of any lingering belief that tomorrow will be easier to price than today. New figures from the Central Bank of Iran sketch a grim paradox. Even with a paper trade surplus in the first half of the current fiscal year, capital still streamed out at record levels, nearly $15 billion leaving the country against an $11 billion surplus, suggesting that export lines on a balance sheet no longer translate into safety inside the system. The national currency’s recent plunge begins to look less like a sudden panic than like an orderly retreat by those who can afford to exit first. Oil, the state’s traditional shock absorber, is no longer cushioning the fall. The central bank’s data show the nominal value of oil exports slipping about 10% to $30.7 billion over the first six months of the fiscal year that began on March 21, 2025, and that is before the shadow toll of sanctions evasion, opaque middlemen, and discounts offered to keep barrels moving. Parliamentary figures sharpen the point: one lawmaker placed actual oil earnings at $20 billion over eight months, and the head of parliament’s budget commission said only $13 billion of that had been received. In other words, Iran is not simply earning less; it is also failing to fully touch what it earns, as if the country’s main revenue stream now arrives already diminished and then vanishes into channels the public cannot see. When a state cannot reliably convert exports into usable income, it turns inward, toward its own banks, and toward the easiest instrument of survival: the printing press by another name. Central bank data show government debt to the banking system rising sharply by November 2025, with borrowing from the central bank surging even faster, while commercial banks themselves leaned harder on the central bank for funds. The result is a familiar cruelty disguised as accounting: liquidity expanding at a pace that fuels inflation, and inflation quietly taxing the poor first. Money supply growth becomes a kind of administrative violence—no arrests, no trials, just the steady erosion of wages and savings. The rial’s collapse, down roughly 75% since February last year, as the article notes, looks less like an accident than the visible surface of a deeper cycle. Declining oil revenue weakens the state; restricted access to proceeds weakens it further; capital flight signals that insiders and businesses do not trust the future; and monetary expansion tries to fill the gap by diluting whatever value remains. Uncertainty, nuclear talks that may or may not deliver relief, and the persistent risk of military escalation, does not merely unsettle markets; it teaches people a lesson about time: that waiting is expensive, and that leaving early is rational.
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Americas
In today’s Cuba, scarcity has been reorganized into a hierarchy. The island’s crisis is no longer experienced as a shared deprivation, but as a split-screen reality: in one frame, steaks, imported groceries, rooftop restaurants lit by candles, and new hybrid vehicles; in the other, ration lines, blackouts, and people combing trash for anything that can be exchanged for cash. The old promise of egalitarian hardship has curdled into something more politically corrosive, inequality that is not only pervasive, but unmistakably visible. This new stratification is being driven by the growth of a legalized private sector that the state has learned to tolerate because the alternative is collapse. After small and medium-sized enterprises were authorized in 2021, the number of registered businesses surged, and informal ingenuity hardened into an economy of storefront stalls, living-room kiosks, and street markets selling what state distribution cannot reliably provide. For many families, these businesses have become less a sign of liberalization than a substitute for a failing public supply system: the private sector is portrayed as the channel through which food still arrives, often imported and often priced in ways that only the currency-connected can pay. But the private economy’s lifeline is also its cruelty. Prices in these shops are free-market in everything but name, and they land hardest on those trapped in state salaries and pensions. Basic staples, like sugar, flour, and eggs, are described as costing sums that can swallow days or weeks of income. The result is a familiar authoritarian pattern: survival is not allocated by rights, but by access, access to dollars, remittances, overseas relatives, or private-sector wages. Those who can convert foreign currency thrive; those who cannot are left to calculate hunger against rent, darkness against transportation, medicine against food. There is now a pyramid of currencies and purchasing power, where electronic peso transfers used in the state sector sit at the bottom, weakened further by shortages of cash that force people to queue simply to withdraw their own wages. Above that sit semi-convertible instruments and, higher still, actual dollars, especially dollars held abroad that can pay for imports. The black-market exchange rate becomes the unofficial truth of daily life, widening the gap between those who live inside the official economy and those who operate in the shadow system that actually functions. External pressure intensifies the sense of emergency, and the crisis is framed as deepening under renewed U.S. efforts to squeeze Havana, particularly through tighter constraints and a push to choke off oil supplies. Fuel shortages ripple outward into everything: longer lines, higher prices, and workarounds that again belong mostly to the affluent, hybrid cars, electric scooters, and home solar panels. Even mobility becomes a class privilege: the ability to move through the city without waiting a day for gasoline is treated as another marker of the new Cuban social order. Meanwhile, the government’s posture toward the private sector appears deeply ambivalent, dependent yet resentful. The state is described as periodically blaming entrepreneurs for inflation or “speculation,” while simultaneously tightening controls that make business harder: limiting company size, forcing transactions into local currency, and channeling imports through state intermediaries. The message this sends is not stability but conditional permission, an economy allowed to exist as a “necessary evil,” never secure enough to build long-term confidence, and always vulnerable to sudden rule changes. The most haunting contrast in the piece is not rhetorical but physical: delicatessens offering luxury imports at discreet addresses while, a few blocks away, people scavenge trash for recyclable bottles to sell for a few pesos each. In the 1990s, hardship after the Soviet collapse was brutal but broadly shared; now deprivation has been sorted into separate worlds, and the separation itself becomes the grievance. When a system can no longer provide, it does something subtler: it allows some to buy their way out, then calls the resulting inequality an unfortunate side effect rather than a political choice. In that sense, Cuba’s crisis is not only an economic emergency but a moral rearrangement. The state’s retreat has not produced freedom so much as a market in survival, where the privileged can purchase normal life while everyone else inherits the consequences of failed governance. The danger for the regime is not merely that people are hungry or exhausted, but that they are hungry and can see exactly who is not.
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Despot of the Week
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